Team News - NCAA Playoff Possibilities

After last week's PSAC Championship Possibilities article, several readers inquired about West Chester’s chances for the NCAA Division II Playoffs. Since the first regional rankings were due to be released yesterday, it was worth waiting to examine that topic...with some interesting scenarios.

Anyone who’s interested can read the details of how the Division II Football playoffs work in the official 2017-18 Pre-Championship Manual. For everyone else, here’s a high level overview.

For Division II football, the NCAA seeds seven teams from each of four regions in the country. The Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference is a member of Super Region 1, along with the Northeast 10, the Mountain East Conference, and the Great Midwest Athletic Conference. To dispel one myth, unlike soccer, basketball, baseball, softball and some other sports, no team receives automatic qualification for winning its conference for the football playoffs. Each team is evaluated based on its Division II record, strength of schedule (SOS) (its opponents’ winning percentage and its opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage), head-to-head record, and results versus common opponents among other criteria such as record on the road, record against teams with a record of .500 or better and record in non-conference, in-region games. So even though conference champions don’t get an automatic bid, conference champions typically grade highly in the qualification criteria.

So out of the 45 teams in the region, only seven teams qualify for the playoffs. Currently, there are 11 teams that have a record of 6-2 or better with West Chester being one of them. The three remaining undefeated teams in the region - IUP (8-0) of the PSAC, Assumption (7-0) of the NE10, and Shepherd (7-0) of the MEC - are almost certain to receive an invitation. Findlay (7-1) of the GMAC is also in a very good position. So that’s four of the seven spots.

Shippensburg (7-1) has a great record, but their opponents are a combined 19-42, so they have a very poor SOS, and they lost to the only >.500 team that they faced – West Chester. Their SOS will improve in the next two weeks as they travel to Kutztown (6-2) this Saturday before hosting Bloomsburg (6-2) the following week.

Among the six teams that are 6-2, West Chester has the strongest SOS, but that will fall as they play East Stroudsburg (2-6) and Millersville (3-5). Next on the SOS list is Slippery Rock which already owns the head-to-head battle over the Golden Rams. Notre Dame of the MEC is next and, after playing two .500 teams in the coming weeks, will face Indianapolis (8-0). Next in terms of SOS is Kutztown; West Chester owns the head-to-head over the Golden Bears. Then comes California and finally Bloomsburg; Bloomsburg owns the head-to-head over West Chester.

So what’s the best way for West Chester to qualify for the NCAA postseason while battling their predictably falling SOS?

1. West Chester wins its remaining games. There may be ways for the Golden Rams to get in at 8-3, but with such a crowded field, the possibilities as of now are few.

2. Have Kutztown win the rest of their games. This means they tag Shippensburg with their second loss and tag Slippery Rock with their third loss in week 11.

3. Have Bloomsburg lose to IUP in the PSAC Championship. To get to this point, the Huskies need to beat Shippensburg, thus handing the Raiders their third loss. But after losing to IUP, Bloomsburg would also finish the season with three losses. Bloomsburg qualifying for the PSAC Championship means that West Chester would host Clarion in week 11 as originally scheduled, which certainly increases the chances of #1 above.

4. It would help if California lost another game to give them three losses and the best chance of that is when they travel to Edinboro in week 10. The Fighting Scots just beat Slippery Rock, so the desired outcome certainly is not out of the question.

5. Have Notre Dame lose to Indianapolis in week 11 to give the Falcons three losses.

6. LIU Post and New Haven are both 5-2 and can’t finish better than 8-2 which isn’t as good a winning percentage as the proposed 9-2 for West Chester. On top of that, the Golden Rams already own the “common opponents” component over LIU Post (West Chester beat Bentley while Post lost to the Falcons). For good measure, Bentley can give West Chester the same advantage over New Haven by tipping New Haven on 11/4.

No doubt, this is idealistic. And more importantly, it foregoes the chance to play in the PSAC Championship which leads to our fan poll question. Of course, the only thing the Golden Rams can control is winning the games that remain ahead of them. But the next two weeks in Super Region 1 are going to be a very interesting experience.