A - Just a quick recap, for Division II football, the NCAA divides the country into four regions and seven teams from each region qualify for the playoffs. Teams within each region are ranked based on their record and strength of schedule. Starting after week seven, the NCAA publishes their top ten teams in each region. After last week, West Chester is not in the top ten. To answer the question - very slim.
- Shepherd (9-0) - Shepherd is in regardless of tomorrow's outcome, but they're playing a 2-8 team, so a likely win and top seed.
- Bowie St (9-0) - Bowie St is interesting in that they played their first four Division II games of the season with an ineligible player. So those wins will be nullified, but not forfeited. That means that their winning percentage gets dinged a little bit. Their conference, the CIAA, applied nullification to their conference record and determined that they still won their division and qualified for the CIAA Championship game. A win over Winston-Salem St, and Bowie St is likely in. But a loss tomorrow will make nullification a bigger impact to their status.
- Charleston (9-1) - Charleston's only loss is to Shepherd, so they are in regardless of tomorrow's outcome, but they're playing a 1-9 team, so a likely win.
- Slippery Rock (9-1) - even a West Chester loss will only make the Rock 9-2. They're in.
- Assumption (9-1) - similar to the Rock, a loss to New Haven in the Northeast-10 Championship game tomorrow will make them only 9-2. Hard to exclude them from the NCAA playoffs.
- Indiana (7-2) - a probable win over Cheyney tomorrow will make them 8-2, only slightly better than West Chester's 8-3. Also important to point out is that among common opponents with West Chester - Kutztown, Lock Haven, Seton Hill, Mercyhurst, Slippery Rock, Cheyney - Indiana will be 4-2 (lost to Kutztown and Slippery Rock) and West Chester would be 5-1 (loss to Mercyhurst). So this is a possibilty.
- Virginia Union (8-1) - Virginia Union doesn't play tomorrow, but they stand a good chance based on their current position in the regional rankings.
- California (7-3) - similar to New Haven even though the Vulcans have the same record as West Chester, their strength of schedule is better. It will diminish when they play Lock Haven (2-8) tomorrow.
- New Haven (7-3) - Assumption's opponent in the Northeast 10 Championship tomorrow, they're ahead of West Chester based on their superior strength of schedule.
- Glenville St (7-3) - the Pioneers took themselves out of the picture with a loss to Fairmont St last night.
So what needs to happen? First and foremost, West Chester needs to beat Slippery Rock. And the bottom line, that's the only thing that the team can control. After that, root for Assumption to beat New Haven, since Assumption is likely in either way, this would make New Haven 7-4. Hope Kutztown beats Clarion and Mercyhurst beats Shippensburg. The CIAA will surely get a team in, and if the nullification is not going to hurt Bowie St, then hope they win and Virginia Union's two fewer games and lesser strength of schedule (after West Chester's improves after tomorrow) catches up to them. Is there any chance California loses to Lock Haven? Doubtful. Some have pointed out that under this scenario, West Chester will have defeated Slippery Rock where as the Vulcans lost to the Rock. But that would be cherry picking a common opponent. Looking at all of the common opponents that California and West Chester have - Bloomsburg, Shippensburg, Seton Hill, Slippery Rock, Mercyhurst and Lock Haven - both teams are 4-2. So a lot of things have to happen just right, but even then, there appears to be too many teams in front of the Golden Rams to get into the number seven spot based on the selection criteria.
As always, if you have any questions, comments or ideas for topics, please e-mail them to GoldenRamFootballClub@comcast.net and be sure to follow us on twitter @GoldenRamFC
D2football - PSAC Columnist - Championships Are Set In SR1
3 comments:
Perhaps D2 should consider taking the conference champion as an automatic bid (similar to D1 Basketball Tourney)? Then round out the rest of the field with at-large bids.
If the Rams win the PSAC championship game, thereby becoming the champions of the PSAC, but don't make NCAA tournament, and IUP or CAL, who will not be the PSAC champions, do make the NCAA tournament, what is the point of having a PSAC championship game? Shouldn't it be called the State Participation Game?
The PSAC Championship game was something devised by the PSAC - that is, its member schools, the conference merely implements the schools' wishes - and has nothing to do with the NCAA playoffs, other than it's another game on the schedule. One could argue that any conference championship game does not have the two best teams in the conference participating in it, but the two best based on some arbitrary geographic boundary. An example of this is this year's CIAA championship game which puts Bowie St (9-1) against Winston-Salem St (5-5). Should Winston-Salem St make the playoff field as the result of one game? Bowie St is in the same division with Virginia Union (8-1). As far as conference champion winners getting an automatic bid to the NCAA playoffs, the NCAA requires a minimum percentage of schools to participate in that sport. So basketball and baseball is no problem, but football, lacrosse and field hockey don't meet that criteria.
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