Team News - Playoff Possibilities

A discussion about the playoff possibilities was held after the eighth game. Now that the regular season is complete, it's worth revisiting the subject. Keep in mind that only six teams from the region will qualify and there is a provision for a conference to be represented as long as one of its teams appears in the top eight of the rankings held after the regular season.  One analysis based on each team's Division II record and strength of schedule looks as follows:

1. Shepherd 10-0
2. Winston-Salem St 8-1
3. Bloomsburg 10-1
4. West Chester 10-1
5. Virginia St 9-1
6. Slippery Rock 9-2
7. American International 9-2

From this, it's safe to say that undefeated Shepherd will be #1 and the NE10 conference will be represented by American International at #6. And it's safe to say that Bloomsburg and West Chester will both be in the playoff field and Bloomsburg will be ahead of West Chester due to their head-to-head result. Beyond that, there are a LOT of unknowns.

Due to an incident at the CIAA Championship luncheon, the CIAA Championship game between Winston-Salem St and Virginia St was cancelled. It has been documented that a Virginia St player has been arrested for assaulting the Winston-Salem St quarterback. But it's unclear what, if any, impact this will have on the NCAA playoffs. As a result of the CIAA Championship game being cancelled, Winston-Salem St finished with a regular season Division II record of 8-1. However, this leaves them one game short of the minimum ten games required by the NCAA to qualify for the postseason. Will the NCAA grant them an exception for this shortfall and still consider them for the postseason? And if so, will it come at no penalty whatsoever? Despite Winston-Salem St's very strong schedule, there are three other teams with only one loss but more Division II wins.

But one of those teams with a better Division II record is Virginia St at 9-1. They've met the NCAA minimum ten games, but will Virginia St be excused, by their own administration or by the NCAA, from being considered for the postseason due to the incident that took place Friday? If not, will the seedings be "adjusted" such that Virginia St and Winston-Salem St don't meet in the first or second rounds?

Virginia St has the worst schedule strength among the top seven teams. One approach the NCAA could do is to move Slippery Rock up to #5 ahead of Virginia St at #6 and then bump the Trojans for American International due to earned access. This would mean no official sanctions against Virginia St, but rank the teams in such a way that they are not rewarded with postseason play. Another possibility is to permit Winston-Salem St to participate in the playoffs, but rank them behind the teams that have two more Division II wins than they do. There are far too many possibilities and permutations to consider and the imagination can run wild.

Some observations about Slippery Rock in comparison to West Chester. West Chester (10-1) has a better record than Slippery Rock (9-2), but Slippery Rock's strength of schedule is better. Another consideration is common opponents which, between the Rock and the Golden Rams, are Bloomsburg, Kutztown, Shippensburg, California, Clarion and Gannon. West Chester is 5-1 against those six teams while Slippery Rock is 4-2. It would seem that West Chester is safely ahead of the Rock.

One thing is for sure - all the speculation will end at 5:00 pm when the Division II Football Selection Show announces the field on NCAA.com.

West Chester Athletic Site - Football Awaits NCAA Selection Show Sunday Night At 5 PM