The PSAC championship possibilities were discussed three weeks ago and worked nearly as expected. The Golden Rams won their final three division games - Cheyney, East Stroudsburg, and Millersville - and Bloomsburg lost at least one of their final three games, although few thought it would be a home game against Lock Haven in addition to their game at Shippensburg. And Shippensburg defeating Kutztown had no impact on West Chester advancing to the PSAC Championship game as the Golden Rams owned the head-to-head tiebreaker over both of those teams. So West Chester will host Indiana on Saturday.
Over the past three weeks, the NCAA postseason has gotten much clearer for some teams, just not West Chester. All of the teams that appeared in the second regional rankings won last week which resulted in only one minor change among the top ten - California and LIU Post swapped places at #9 and #10 on the list. At this point, the top four teams - Indiana, Assumption, Shepherd and Findlay - are locks for the postseason as all can survive a loss this Saturday and still make it. After that, things get murky.
If the next two teams - Slippery Rock and West Chester - both win, they will make the playoffs. But can West Chester withstand a loss this weekend?
Slippery Rock may slip out of the postseason with a loss. They will get a strength of schedule boost, and they still own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Golden Rams, but they'd be 1-3 against common opponents (beat Lock Haven, lost to Indiana, Edinboro and Kutztown) whereas West Chester would be 3-1 against those same three teams (beat Lock Haven, Edinboro, and Kutztown, lost to Indiana). If both teams finish 8-3, West Chester's superior strength of schedule may be enough to slot them ahead of the Rock.
Despite Shippensburg having a better record than West Chester, the Golden Rams have been ahead of the Raiders in every regional rankings this year. This is due to both the head-to-head outcome between the two schools as well as West Chester's significantly stronger strength of schedule. The head-to-head outcome between these two teams obviously won't change, and the strength of schedule disparity will only widen since West Chester is playing an undefeated Indiana team while Shippensburg is hosting winless Seton Hill. If West Chester and Shippensburg both lose, then the Golden Rams stay ahead of the Raiders. Although not impossible, it's difficult to imagine an 8-3 West Chester team ahead of a 10-1 Shippensburg squad.
A Notre Dame win over undefeated Indianapolis puts them ahead an 8-3 West Chester and probably ahead of a 10-1 Shippensburg, while a loss keeps them out of the postseason. California's schedule strength is not great and it will worsen on Saturday. Although a 9-2 record will look very appealing, how many of the teams ahead of them need to lose for the Vulcans to move into the top seven? LIU Post dropped a spot in the rankings due to their schedule strength falling. That will continue when they take on St. Anselm (2-7) on Saturday. The Pioneers need a lot of help to make the postseason.
Here are the games among this week's top ten:
#1 Indiana (10-0) at #6 West Chester (8-2)
Bentley (5-4) at #2 Assumption (9-0)
#3 Shepherd (9-0) at Virginia-Wise (4-5)
#4 Findlay (9-1) at Ohio Dominican (5-3)
#5 Slippery Rock (8-2) at Kutztown (7-3)
Seton Hill (0-10) at #7 Shippensburg (9-1)
#8 Notre Dame (8-2) at Indianapolis (10-0)
#9 California (8-2) at East Stroudsburg (3-7)
#10 LIU Post (7-2) at St Anselm (2-7)
The easiest scenario for the Golden Rams is to just win on Saturday. Otherwise, it's a long, nervous wait until Sunday night.
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