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Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Reader Question - Playoff Possibilities

This question came in from one of our readers:

Q - GRFC, Now that West Chester is back to .500 and knocked off Shippensburg, a team with a winning record, what are our chances for the postseason?

A - For an overview of the NCAA Division II playoff structure and selection, please refer to a similar article from 2013. The only thing that differs from three years ago is that seven teams are now invited from each Super Region.

Unfortunately, with three Division II losses, the playoffs are nothing more than a very remote possibility for West Chester this season. From the Mountain East Conference, Shepherd's (5-0) most difficult remaining opponent is Fairmont St (6-0) which has played a very soft schedule to this point. In the Northeast-10 Conference, LIU Post (6-0) has defeated its most difficult opponent in Assumption (5-1) and will likely face the winner of Assumption and New Haven (4-2) in the NE10 championship game. In the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference, California (5-0) has already knocked off Slippery Rock (5-1), a team that already beat West Chester and Indiana (4-1). The Vulcans won't be tested until November when they face Edinboro (5-1), another team that has beaten the Golden Rams. Even though conference champions don't get an automatic bid to the the postseason, the winner of the Central Intercollegiate Athletic Association will surely have a good enough record to qualify for the playoffs. So that's ten teams that currently have two or fewer losses, with few having scenarios where they will lose three or more games this season.

The PSAC championship game is within reach of the Golden Rams, but not without help. West Chester is currently in a four-way for second place with Bloomsburg, East Stroudsburg and Shippensburg who are all 2-1 in the East Division. The Golden Rams hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with Shippensburg and can give both Bloomsburg and East Stroudsburg their second division loss in the next three weeks. However, winning out is not enough for the Golden Rams to make their second consecutive appearance in the PSAC championship game. Kutztown (3-0) holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over West Chester, so the Golden Bears will need to drop two of their final four division games. Kutztown hosts Lock Haven and Cheyney, but neither of these two teams appears to offer a significant challenge. The best chances of Golden Bear losses appear to be this Saturday and October 29 when Kutztown plays at East Stroudsburg and at Shippensburg. So if Kutztown wins this Saturday in the Poconos, they are almost surely on their way to play for the PSAC crown at California.

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