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Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Team News - Playoff Possibilities

When West Chester opened the season 0-2, it left only a slim opportunity for qualifying for the postseason. After Saturday’s loss at Shippensburg, those chances are almost completely gone. How was this conclusion reached? Let’s take a look at how the Division II football playoffs work.

The NCAA divides the nation into four regions. West Chester is in Super Region I which roughly equates to the northeast corner of the United States. The region consists of the Northeast-10 Conference, Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference, the Mountain East Conference, and the Central Intercollegiate Athletic Association. In total, those conferences have 49 schools that sponsor Division II football and the NCAA selects seven teams for the postseason, up from six during the past eleven years.

Teams are selected for the playoffs based on several factors, but primarily a team’s Division II record coupled with its strength of schedule (SOS). The strength of schedule is based on each team’s opponents win/loss records as well as their opponents’ opponents’ win/loss records. After seven weeks, West Chester is 4-3. Among the other 48 teams in the region, eight have zero or one loss and another eight have two losses. That’s 16 teams vying for just seven spots, and that doesn’t include all of the other teams in the region that also have three losses. So the chances of qualifying for the NCAA playoffs is extremely remote. However, there is still something to play for – a possible PSAC championship. But it will require some luck.

The team with the best record in each division advances to play in the PSAC Championship game. Since West Chester is currently 3-1 in the division, winning their remaining three games in the division – versus Bloomsburg, at Cheyney and versus East Stroudsburg – will give them a record of 6-1. Shippensburg is also 3-1 and has games remaining at Cheyney, against Millersville and at Kutztown. Kutztown might give the Red Raiders a tussle, but it seems pretty likely that Shippensburg will also finish the division 6-1. If it were to come down to West Chester and Shippensburg, then the Raiders would advance to the PSAC Championship by virtue of their head-to-head win over West Chester.

Enter Bloomsburg. The Huskies are currently 4-0 in the division and after visiting Farrell Stadium this coming Saturday, they then travel to East Stroudsburg and then host Lock Haven. Remember a West Chester homecoming win was assumed earlier in this discussion. Then if Bloomsburg beats the Warriors and the Bald Eagles, they would also finish division play 6-1 and in a three-way tie with Shippensburg and West Chester.

The first tie breaker is head-to-head, which turns out to be a round robin since Bloomsburg beat Shippensburg, Shippensburg beat West Chester, and West Chester (as assumed) beat Bloomsburg. The second tie breaker considered is each team’s record against the other opponents in the division. Well if each finishes the division at 6-1 and was 1-1 against the two other teams involved in the tie breaker, then they all will have finished 5-0 against the remaining teams in the PSAC East. The third tie breaker is each team's record in the two conference mandated crossover games. West Chester defeated Seton Hill and lost to Mercyhurst; Bloomsburg defeated California and lost to Mercyhurst; and Shippensburg defeated Edinboro and lost to California. So each team was 1-1 against the PSAC West and that tie breaker doesn’t solve the situation. The important thing to note here is that Shippensburg's victory over PSAC West Seton Hill is not considered since it was arranged by those two schools and not mandated by the PSAC.

So the fourth and final tie breaker comes down to….a coin flip.

As a result, the path forward is clear for West Chester. First and foremost is to win their remaining games. Hope for Shippensburg to lose one of their next three, but since that’s improbable, the Golden Rams need to get into a three-way tie with Bloomsburg and Shippensburg. That means, West Chester should root for East Stroudsburg to lose to Bloomsburg, a task that’s typically not too hard for Golden Rams fans. And then it’s time to take out the quarters.

As to which school will represent the PSAC West in the championship game? Well it’s too early and messy to tell west of the Susquehanna River. Clarion is 4-0 in their division, but have three tough games left at California, versus Indiana and at Slippery Rock. Indiana is also 4-0 and travels to Slippery Rock and Clarion before hosting Gannon. Slippery Rock is 3-1, having lost to Seton Hill, and hosts Indiana, travels to winless Edinboro and hosts Clarion.

West Chester is scheduled to host Indiana on November 14 and those two teams will play if neither, or both, win its respective division. If West Chester gets lucky but Indiana does not win the PSAC West, then the Golden Rams will host the PSAC West champion. If Indiana wins the PSAC West and West Chester loses, either a game or the coin flip, then the Golden Rams will host whomever the PSAC East champion was scheduled to play.

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