Team News - Playoff Possibilities

On the eve of the final game of the regular season, it's worth taking a look at the regional rankings and some playoff scenarios. There was a discussion on this topic after week 8 last season. The pertinent parts of that discussion have been restated below. First some background.

Almost every sports fan is familiar with the NCAA’s biggest tournament: Division I basketball. It has several publications and television shows that discuss the selections and seedings both prior to their release as well as afterwards. But forget everything you hear about how teams are selected to that tournament. That is, in Division II football, there is no automatic qualification for winning a team’s conference, and there’s no consideration for such thing as “quality losses”, “wins against top 20 teams” or “bad losses”.

For Division II football, the NCAA selects six teams from each of four geographical regions. The top seed receives a first round bye and hosts the winner of the fourth and fifth seed. Similarly, the second seed gets a bye and hosts the winner of the third and sixth seed. West Chester is in Super Region I, which is comprised of four conferences:

• Northeast-10 Conference (NE10)
  
• Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference (PSAC)
  
• Mountain East Conference (MEC)
  
• Central Intercollegiate Athletic Association (CIAA)
  

Rankings are based mainly on each team’s:

• Division II win/loss percentage and total number of Division II wins
  
• Strength of schedule (SOS) which is comprised of opponents’ winning percentage and opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage
  
• Head-to-head (H2H) competition and record against common opponents
  

Rankings are performed by a national committee with input from each region’s advisory committee. So although West Chester appears in the AFCA, the D2football.com and the Lambert Meadowlands polls, those lists have NO bearing on the postseason.

Finally, although there are no automatic qualifications, the selection criteria does include "earned access" which is an exception to help ensure, but not guarantee, that each conference in a region is represented.

Okay, with the groundwork laid, it's time for an evaluation of each team and what's in West Chester's best interest tomorrow. All of the following assumes a West Chester victory at Indiana tomorrow.

• #1 Bloomsburg (10-0) at Slippery Rock (8-2) – there is no way that West Chester can finish ahead of Bloomsburg. If the Huskies were to lose in the PSAC championship game, they would have the same record as West Chester of 10-1. Since Bloomsburg defeated West Chester in week eight, Bloomsburg will be placed in front of West Chester.
  
  
• #2 Concord (10-0) at Shepherd (8-1) - even if the Mountain Lions fall to Shepherd, they will have the same record as West Chester. And West Chester and Concord currently have very similar schedule strengths. However, Concord is playing a team that is 8-1 while West Chester is playing a team that's only 6-4. Barring a sweep by all of the other PSAC East teams over the PSAC West, that means Concord's SOS will improve more than West Chester's. It appears that a 10-1 Concord team will still be ahead of West Chester.
  
  
• #4 Winston-Salem St (9-1) vs Virginia St (8-2) - West Chester's SOS is currently slightly better than Winston-Salem St which is why the two teams are ordered the way they are. But similar to Concord, the Rams' SOS will improve more than West Chester's on Saturday. If all of West Chester's previous opponents lose tomorrow, a 10-1 Winston-Salem could potentially overtake West Chester.
  
  
• #5 American International (8-1) vs LIU Post (7-3) - American International has a similar SOS to West Chester, but they played FCS Stony Brook this season, so the Yellow Jackets can't finish with more than nine Division II wins. They may make the playoff field regardless of the outcome of the NE10 championship game due to earned access.
  
  
• #6 Shepherd (8-1) vs Concord (10-0) - a Shepherd win likely puts them in the playoffs at 9-1 and their SOS will be superior to West Chester's. It's unclear if their margin in SOS will be enough to offset one less win (Shepherd took a bye in week 8), but their SOS will put them above a 9-1 American International. It would also be interesting to see how Shepherd and Concord will be ranked since Concord will have more wins and a better SOS but Shepherd will own the head-to-head result.
  
  
• #7 Virginia St (8-2) vs Winston-Salem St (9-1) - a Virginia St win in the CIAA championship will rank them ahead of Winston-Salem St due to the head-to-head result. The Trojans already have a very good SOS and they will be the highest ranked 9-2 team in the region. They may even rank ahead of a 9-1 Shepherd even without earned access.
  
  
• #8 Slippery Rock (8-2) vs Bloomsburg (10-0) – a Slippery Rock win makes them 9-2 and elevates their SOS. The Rock won't be a threat to a 10-1 Golden Ram team, but they'll likely be ranked higher than a 9-2 West Chester squad.
  
  

The bottom line is all of the other teams in the top eight of the most recent regional rankings are playing opponents with much better records than Indiana which will help their SOS more than the Golden Rams. So in general, West Chester wants the teams in front of them that they can not jump (Bloomsburg and Concord) to win and the teams close behind them that are nipping at their heels (Winston-Salem St, American International, Shepherd) to lose. And although the Golden Rams aren't necessarily eliminated with a loss, it significantly decreases the likelihood of playing next week. A 9-2 Golden Ram squad might sneak in as the sixth seed if Bloomsburg wins (to make Slippery Rock 8-3) and Winston-Salem St wins (to make Virginia St 8-3).

As always, if you have any questions, comments or ideas for topics, please e-mail them to GoldenRamFootballClub@comcast.net and be sure to follow us on twitter @GoldenRamFC

D2football - National Columnist - Bob Eblen - National Columnist

Beyond Sports Network - BSN Division 2 Playoff, Super Region Rankings, and Conference Championships 11/9/14

BennetRank - Who’s In, Who’s Out? Status Update for Every 2013-14 D2 Football Playoff Team

Charleston Daily Mail - Plenty at stake in Concord-Shepherd showdown